What the World and humans, well, all living things, need at the Copenhagen Climate Change Conference in December 2009, is a shoot out between all the nations against the biggest per capita polluter, the most resistant or intransigent and some would say the rogue, United States; a nation that acts like Wild Bill Hickok and Billy The Kid, when it comes to environment issues.
This essay has been on my back burner for about six weeks as I contemplate the very nature of the conference, that it will be a showdown in the most revolutionary way if the conference is to reaffirm Kyoto and thereby challenge the United States, who intends to gut COP15! To put it concisely, the U.S., in the Clinton, Bush II presidencies and now in the Obama administration, has been the major obstacle to establishing international limits on greenhouse gas emissions. And the U.S. objective at the conference is to rescind Kyoto for something even weaker.
The U.S. has unilaterally set its base year as 2005. All other nations use the 1990 baseline. So when the U.S. claims a 17% reduction using the 2005 date, the carbon reduction only amounts to 3% in 1990 measurements! However, when "Cap and Trade" agreements are calculated, the U.S. would contribute nothing (0%) to carbon mitigation! With about 4% of world population, having contributed 25% of the carbon emissions as an industrialized superpower, the U.S. needs to sign onto the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. The Obama administration is instead trying to sidetrack Kyoto.
The two-degree celsius maximum average global temperature is too high! Some nations ask that 1.5-degree celsius be the maximum allowable. The small island countries state that the 1.5-degree level is to high and would lead to island extinctions. I am more comfortable with 1.0-degree top. Also, the 25-40% carbon reduction range by 2020, is too modest. I favor the 49% goal advocated by some. Currently, atmospheric carbon (CO2) is 390ppm, and there is already serious polar ice melting, and Africa is drying up. Maximum CO2 should be no more than 350ppm to avert increasing climate crises.
When it comes to reparations and the climate debt (the ecological debt), the industrialized nations, basically the U.S., Canada and the EU, have suggested $30 billion over three years for adaptation for developing nations--to cover the costs of climate change damage and adjustments. The EU speaks of $3.5 billion per year as its share. The actual costs of dealing with droughts, increased flooding and the like is probably $100 billion a year. The costs of moving to cleaner green technology immediately would be about $500-$600 billion a year! And then there is the matter of reparations for previous climate change destruction. The polluters will have to pay!
A temporary walkout occurred at COP15 early in the second week by the G77, (132 developing countries). A permanent walkout, like what happened in Barcelona by the African coalition during a preliminary conference to COP15, seems likely. The "Danish Text" has revealed the secret agenda by some developed nations to exclude the United Nations from all future international climate change oversight!
No one could argue against the fact that the status quo is preserved by the rich and powerful. No ruling institution will relinquish its prerogatives. Since corporations acquired the rights of personhood they have steadfastly built and maintain their dominion. Corporations rule! That is the status quo. And the industrial revolution that led to corporate rule was built on readily available and relatively cheap fossil fuels.
Corporate green washing, making profits from the climate crisis, is quite disgusting. The message seems to be that addressing the climate disaster is good business. There is money to be made. The corporations established great wealth in creating global pollution, and now they want to determine how energy will be used forevermore! The only obstacle is the G77.
The climate refugee is the face of the Twenty-First Century! We saw such refugees after Katrina--and the vast majority will never return to New Orleans! Global climate-caused migrations are already massive in scope.
Copenhagen is an ambush by the industrial giants, primary the U.S., Canada and the EU, against the developing nations. But, unlike the 1992 Rio Earth Summit and the 1997 Kyoto Summit, when the developing countries made far too many concessions to the demands of developed nations, at Copenhagen the G77 coalition is not going to be servilely obedient! This will be a shootout of epic proportions; for human existence is at issue.
The main reason the U.S. has not signed onto the Kyoto Protocol is because it requires developed nations to significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. (Canada signed Kyoto, but has ignored its emissions mitigation requirements.) Obama is in the pocket of mega corporations that rely on fossil fuels to produce profits: automobile complex, agribusiness, power producers and the oil industry. He is a Faustian tragedy, playing out his role. When it comes to climate issues, he is Nero Claudius. Obama will look the other way as Africa burns under increasing global temperatures. Desmond Tutu has suggested, in the Nobel Peace Prize context, that now Obama can become what he is.
Like the so-called Healthcare reform bill before the U.S. Senate, the best that can happen at the Copenhagen Summit (and in the Senate) is that no agreement is better than an ill-advised and compromised one.
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